Will generative AI cause catastrophic economic dislocation?

One facet of AI risk.

• https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2024-04/The%20Simple%20Macroeconomics%20of%20AI.pdf

  • Acemoglu finds much more modest impacts over the next 10 years than Briggs or Felten, predicts slight wage growth for low-income workers.

• Briggs, J., Kodnani, D., Hatzius, J., & Pierdomenico, G. (2023). Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth. Goldman Sachs.

  • Perhaps 7% of US jobs will be mostly replaced by generative AI. Historic comparisons suggest that many (but not all) of these people will be re-employed elsewhere. Estimated 7% GDP increase over ten years.

• Felten et al. Occupational Heterogeneity in Exposure to Generative AI (2023)

  • O*NET-based modeling; finds AI will disproportionately impact highly educated, highly paid, highly creative occupations

• Manning, S., Mishkin, P., Hadfield, G., & Eisner, E. (2023). A Research Agenda for Assessing the Economic Impacts of Code Generation Models.

  • OpenAI is looking to evaluate the economic impacts of Codex as a possible input to deployment criteria.

Queue

• Acemoglu, Daron and Pascual Restrepo. “Automation and new tasks: How technology displaces and reinstates labor.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 33, no. 2 (2019): 3-30
• Autor, David, Caroline Chin, Anna M. Salomons, and Bryan Seegmiller. New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018. No. w30389. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2022.