In-essay Quantum Country reader performance partially predicts first review performance

Quantum Country readers’ in-essay performance give us a hint of how they’ll perform in the future, but R^2 is only around 0.5.

20220118102516 (over ~800 aggressiveStart readers who collected at least 80 cards and completed a first review of them all)

I notice that the top and bottom quartiles (in rank) mostly stay in their boxes; it’s the middle two quartiles which are much more spread. So we may at least be able to predict people for whom this material is likely quite easy, and those for whom it may be quite hard.

If you add in first review performance, though, you get a pretty good model: Performance in-essay and in first review strongly predict a Quantum Country reader’s future performance on that question

Related, slicing by question: In-essay Quantum Country question difficulties partially predict first review difficulties